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TIME: Almanac 1995
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1995-01-31
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<text id=94TT1730>
<title>
Dec. 12, 1994: Bosnia:What Washington Wants?
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1994
Dec. 12, 1994 To the Dogs
</history>
<article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
BOSNIA, Page 30
Who Can Tell What Washington Wants?
</hdr>
<body>
<p>By J.F.O. McAllister/Washington--With reporting by Douglas Waller/Washington
</p>
<p> What a mess in Washington too. From the outset, Bill Clinton's
Bosnia policy has been equal parts wishful thinking, domestic
politics and bluff; now it has virtually disintegrated under
the pressure of the Bosnian Serbs and quarreling presidential
advisers. The Serb triumph at Bihac has brought home the extent
of Washington's failure and opened a bitter debate about what
to do next. "Our policy is in complete disarray," admits a senior
official. The debacle on the battlefield left the White House,
senior Administration officials and a leading legislator separately
enunciating contradictory positions.
</p>
<p> Even before Secretary of State Warren Christopher traveled to
Brussels to reiterate U.S. commitment to the Contact Group plan--which would give 51% of Bosnia's territory to a federation
of Bosnia's Croats and Muslims and 49% to the Bosnian Serbs--the Pentagon was urging Clinton to cut his losses and compromise
with the Serbs. Aides to Secretary of Defense William Perry
warned him that NATO was being torn apart over Bosnia, and the
Administration's demands for air strikes on Bihac had only deepened
the rift. The Joint Chiefs of Staff advised that no military
threats from NATO would bring the Serbs to a political settlement.
According to a position paper classified secret, prepared for
Perry and obtained by TIME, "we should recognize that nothing
about Bosnia is worth a serious split with our NATO allies...We are at the point where we risk losing not only Bosnia
but ((also)) NATO." An Administration official who read an intelligence
report based on electronic eavesdropping said the document had
advised that Paris might be purposely inflaming tensions over
Bosnia to drive a wedge between Britain and the U.S. France,
according to the intelligence analysis, would like to see NATO
broken up and replaced by a European security alliance.
</p>
<p> All this led Perry to arrive at the White House Monday with
a position paper advocating an "illusion-free Bosnia policy"
that would "stop advancing proposals we know the allies will...reject." Among its directives: tell the Bosnian government
"that they will have to accept less" territory than the 51%
awarded them by the Contact Group; drop any thought of lifting
the arms embargo; and accept a confederation of the Bosnian
and Croatian Serbs and Belgrade. The Defense Secretary publicly
floated the confederation idea the next morning, as newspapers
trumpeted a major reversal in U.S. policy.
</p>
<p> That provoked an uproar at the State Department and the National
Security Council, both of which thought Perry had agreed to
something quite different at the White House meeting. "Perry
stepped in a cesspool with that confederation idea," fumed a
top official. "That's a code word for annexation. Our policy
is to uphold certain basic principles," including Bosnia's sovereignty.
Christopher called in reporters to deny any change in U.S. policy.
National Security Adviser Anthony Lake delivered a speech in
Princeton, New Jersey, siding with State and repudiating any
notion of Serb confederation, though he admitted it was "up
to the parties to agree on future constitutional arrangements."
In Brussels, Christopher proposed a big international conference
to work out a settlement along the lines of the old Contact
Group plan in a few months. "It's fair to say this policy has
limited prospects of success," admits a senior official.
</p>
<p> According to another secret memo TIME has obtained, which Perry
sent Lake later in the week, Perry wants to have NATO assume
complete command of any evacuation of peacekeeping troops should
that become necessary. It might, if Republican Majority Leader
Bob Dole's plan to lift the arms embargo unilaterally and mount
aggressive NATO air strikes passes Congress. NATO could be forced
to attempt a "hostile extraction" of U.N. forces, and at least
10,000 American troops would be needed. In fact NATO is already
speeding up its evacuation planning, and Perry asked for authority
to tell the alliance the U.S. would participate. By week's end,
Clinton hadn't made up his mind--leaving another part of his
Bosnia policy drifting.
</p></body>
</article>
</text>